More than five years after the world first grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic, a new wave of infections is quietly making its presence felt across parts of Asia, including India. While the surge is modest compared to previous waves, it serves as an important reminder that the virus has not disappeared and continues to evolve. This blog explores the current situation of rising COVID-19 cases in India and neighboring countries, the underlying causes, and why vigilance remains essential in our collective fight against the virus.

The Current Scenario Of COVID-19 in India: A Snapshot

As of May 19, 2025, India reported 257 active COVID-19 cases nationwide, with 164 new cases recorded between May 12 and May 19. This number is small relative to India’s vast population of over 1.4 billion, but the concentration of cases in certain states is noteworthy.

• Kerala leads with 182 active cases, having recorded 69 new cases in the week.
• Tamil Nadu follows with 66 active cases, including 12 in Puducherry.
• Maharashtra, particularly Mumbai, has 56 active cases, with 44 new cases reported in the past week.
• Other states like Karnataka, Gujarat (notably Ahmedabad), Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Sikkim have reported sporadic cases.

Importantly, the vast majority of these infections are mild, with no hospitalizations or deaths directly attributed to COVID cases in India in this recent wave. This contrasts sharply with the devastating second wave of 2021, which overwhelmed healthcare infrastructure across the country.

The good news? Most covid cases in India currently are mild. Mumbai reports 16 hospitalizations, with patients transferred to prevent transmission, but no ICU admissions have been noted. Only one death in Kerala has been linked to this wave, a stark contrast to the thousands lost daily in 2021. Still, the urban clustering—particularly in cities like Mumbai and Chennai—suggests that high-density areas and travel hubs may be driving this uptick. This pattern raises a unique question: Are India’s bustling cities the frontline of this new wave, and what does that mean for containment?

What’s Driving The Surge - Understanding the Reasons Behind IT!

1. New Variants on the Scene

The current surge is linked to the JN.1 variant and its subvariants LF.7 and NB.1.8, which descend from the Omicron BA.2.86 lineage. These variants have been classified as “variants of interest” by the World Health Organization since late 2023 due to their efficient transmission capabilities.

While these variants are driving surges in Southeast Asian countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and China, their presence in India is still under close watch. So far, there is no evidence that these variants cause more severe disease or higher mortality, but their increased transmissibility means they can spread more rapidly, especially in populations with waning immunity.

2. Waning Immunity and Behavioral Factors

The immunity of India’s population, built from past infections and vaccination campaigns, is gradually declining over time. This waning immunity leaves room for reinfections and mild breakthrough cases.

Additionally, with the easing of restrictions, increased social gatherings, travel, and reduced mask usage, the virus finds more opportunities to spread. These behavioral factors, combined with the arrival of new variants, create the perfect environment for a mild resurgence.

India in a Regional and Global Context

Mild surge of Covid cases in India mirror trends seen across South Asia:

• Singapore reported a 28% rise in cases in early May 2025, with hospitalizations climbing.
• Hong Kong saw its test positivity rate more than double over four weeks.
• Thailand and China are also experiencing increased COVID-19 activity.

This regional wave underscores that COVID-19 remains a global challenge, with the virus continuing to circulate and evolve despite the pandemic being officially declared over by the WHO in 2023.

India’s Robust Action - Government Response and Healthcare Preparedness

India’s health authorities are not taking this lightly. On May 19, 2025, the Union Health Ministry convened a high-level review meeting involving experts from the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), and other bodies.

Key actions include:

1. Enhanced surveillance: The Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) and ICMR are monitoring respiratory illnesses closely, with genomic sequencing ongoing to track variants.
2. Hospital readiness: Mumbai’s Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has reserved dedicated COVID-19 beds and stands ready to scale up if needed.
3. Public advisories: Officials urge mask-wearing in crowded spaces, frequent hand hygiene, and caution for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, immunocompromised, and pregnant women.

4. Vaccination efforts: India has administered over 2.2 billion vaccine doses since the campaign began in January 2021. Vaccines continue to offer strong protection against severe disease, though their ability to prevent mild infections is limited. Booster doses remain recommended, especially in the region.

Expert Perspectives: Endemic COVID-19 and the Road Ahead

Leading health experts emphasize that COVID-19 has entered an endemic phase in India and globally, characterized by periodic waves rather than large-scale pandemics.

• Dr. Raman Gangakhedkar highlights the importance of vigilance for high-risk groups but reassures that the current wave is manageable.
• Dr. Tushar Tayal calls the rise a “normal viral season uptick,” noting the low daily case counts relative to India’s population.
• Dr. Rajeev Jayadevan warns of potential future waves due to waning immunity and new variants, underscoring the need for continued surveillance and public health readiness.

Lessons from the Past and What We Should Remember

India’s experience with COVID-19 has been a rollercoaster:

• The second wave in March 2021 was devastating, marked by shortages of oxygen, hospital beds, and vaccines.
• The vaccination drive, launched in January 2021, has been a monumental success, with over 720 million fully vaccinated individuals by early 2022.
• A surge in December 2023, driven by the JN.1 variant, saw a 520% increase in cases but was far more severe than the current wave.

These experiences have strengthened India’s healthcare infrastructure and preparedness, enabling a more measured response today.

What Can You Do? Practical Advice to Stay Safe

While the current surge is mild, it is a reminder that COVID-19 is still with us, and complacency can lead to avoidable risks.

Here’s what you can do:

• Wear masks in crowded or enclosed spaces, especially if you are in a high-risk group.
• Practice hand hygiene regularly with soap or sanitizer.
• Avoid large gatherings or poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
• Stay updated on vaccinations and consider booster doses if eligible.
• Monitor symptoms and seek medical advice if you experience persistent or severe illness.
• Protect vulnerable family members, such as the elderly or those with chronic conditions.
• Stay tuned to major Covid updates for India.

Final Thoughts: Balancing Vigilance with Normalcy

The rising COVID-19 cases in India in 2025 serve as a reminder that the virus continues to circulate and evolve. However, thanks to widespread vaccination, improved treatments, and enhanced surveillance, the nation is better equipped to manage these periodic waves.

This surge, though mild, calls for balanced vigilance—not panic. By staying informed, following public health advice, and maintaining preventive habits, we can collectively keep ourselves and our communities safe while gradually returning to normal life.

COVID-19 is no longer an unpredictable pandemic but an endemic virus that requires ongoing respect and responsibility. Let’s use the lessons of the past to navigate the present wisely and prepare for the future confidently.

Frequently Asked Question (FAQs)

Q1: Why are COVID-19 cases rising again in India in 2025?

A1: The rise is mainly due to new variants like JN.1, waning immunity, and increased social interactions.

Q2: Are the new COVID-19 variants more dangerous?

A2: Current variants are more transmissible but have not shown increased severity or mortality.

Q3: Should I get a COVID-19 booster shot now?

A3: Boosters are recommended, especially for vulnerable groups, to maintain protection against severe illness.

Q4: What precautions should I take amid the rising cases?

A4: Wear masks in crowded places, practice hand hygiene, avoid large gatherings, and stay updated on vaccinations.

Q5: Is the healthcare system prepared for this surge?

A5: Yes, hospitals in affected states have reserved beds and are ready to scale up if needed.