In an era where climate change and extreme weather events increasingly threaten lives, livelihoods, and economies, accurate and timely weather forecasting has become indispensable. On May 26, 2025, India marked a historic milestone by launching the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), an indigenously developed weather prediction model that boasts the world’s highest spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. This breakthrough places India at the forefront of meteorological science and promises transformative impacts across sectors from agriculture to disaster management.

What is the Bharat Forecast System?

Imagine planning your next farming season, knowing exactly when the rains will arrive in your village—not just your district, but your village. Or picture disaster response teams getting a precise heads-up about a cyclone’s path hours earlier, saving countless lives. This isn’t science fiction—it’s the Bharat Forecast System (BFS).

Developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune, the BFS is a deterministic numerical weather prediction model designed specifically for the tropical region, covering latitudes from 30° South to 30° North — comfortably encompassing the entire Indian mainland. Unlike previous models that operated on a 12 km grid, BFS’s 6 km resolution means each forecast unit covers just 36 square kilometers, enabling highly localized weather predictions down to the village or panchayat level.

The model leverages cutting-edge computational power provided by the newly installed supercomputer Arka at IITM, which operates at 11.77 petaflops with a storage capacity of 33 petabytes. This is a significant upgrade from the previous supercomputer, Pratyush, which took up to 10 hours to run forecasts; Arka can perform the same computations in just about four hours, drastically improving the speed of forecast generation.

Why Bharat Forecast System can be a Game-Changer?

1. Unprecedented Resolution and Accuracy

The BFS’s 6 km grid resolution is the highest globally for a national weather forecasting model. This finer granularity allows meteorologists to capture small-scale weather phenomena such as localized thunderstorms, cyclones, and extreme rainfall events with much greater precision. Compared to older models, BFS has demonstrated a 30-64% improvement in forecast accuracy, particularly for extreme rainfall and cyclone path predictions, which are critical for India’s monsoon-dependent economy.

2. Faster and More Localized Forecasts

Speed and localization are two critical parameters for effective weather forecasting. Earlier, India’s forecasting models took 12-14 hours to produce predictions and operated on coarser grids, limiting the usefulness of forecasts for local decision-making. BFS reduces this time to 4-6 hours and can issue nowcasts — forecasts for the immediate two-hour window — across the country, thanks to data integration from a network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars, soon to be expanded to 100.

This means that instead of issuing a single forecast for a cluster of villages, BFS can provide separate, more accurate forecasts for each village or panchayat, enabling tailored responses to weather threats at the grassroots level.

3. Comprehensive Coverage and Utility

Bharat Forecast System covers the tropical belt, which is a highly chaotic region for weather patterns due to its complex atmospheric dynamics. By focusing on this zone, BFS addresses the unique forecasting challenges faced by India. The system’s applications are broad and vital, including:

• Monsoon tracking: Improved prediction of onset, intensity, and withdrawal phases.
• Disaster management: Early warnings for cyclones, floods, and heatwaves.
• Agriculture: Precise weather data to support crop planning, irrigation, and pest control.
• Aviation and waterways: Enhanced safety and operational efficiency.
• Defense and infrastructure: Better preparedness against weather-related disruptions.

The Technological Backbone: Supercomputing and Radar Integration

At the heart of Bharat Forecast System lies the Arka supercomputer, a beast with 11.77 petaflops of computational power and 33 petabytes of storage. To put that in perspective, Arka processes weather data in just four hours—six hours faster than the older Pratyush supercomputer. This speed is critical for delivering timely forecasts, especially for fast-moving events like flash floods. BFS also taps into a robust network of 40 Doppler Weather Radars across India, with plans to scale up to 100. These radars, combined with satellite imagery and ground-based observations, feed real-time data into the system, enabling “nowcasts”—short-term predictions for the next two hours—that could soon cover the entire country.

What sets BFS apart technically is its Triangular Cubic Octahedral grid model, designed to focus on tropical regions between 30° South and 30° North. Unlike global models from Europe, the UK, or the US, which operate at coarser 9–14-kilometer resolutions, BFS prioritizes the chaotic weather patterns of the tropics. Experimental trials since 2022 show it’s 30% more accurate for extreme rainfall and up to 64% better for monsoon forecasts. That’s not just a number—it’s the difference between a farmer losing a crop or harvesting a bumper yield

This combination of hardware and data integration is a testament to India’s growing prowess in high-performance computing and meteorological sciences, reflecting significant government investment. Since 2014-15, the Ministry of Earth Sciences budget has surged from around Rs 400-500 crore to nearly Rs 20,000 crore, signaling a strategic prioritization of climate and weather research.

Why Bharat Forecast System Matters to India – The Economic and Social Impact

Indian economy, heavily reliant on agriculture, is vulnerable to weather variability. Recent years have witnessed a surge in extreme weather events, including heatwaves occurring on 18% of days between 2022 and 2024, compared to just 5% in 2020-21. Such anomalies have contributed to food inflation and crop losses, underscoring the urgent need for more accurate weather data.

The Bharat Forecast System is expected to play a crucial role in mitigating these impacts by enabling:

• Disaster risk reduction: More precise and timely warnings can save lives and minimize property damage.
• Agricultural resilience: Farmers can make informed decisions on sowing, harvesting, and irrigation, reducing crop failures.
• Economic savings: By preventing losses from weather-related disruptions, BFS can contribute to stabilizing inflation and boosting GDP growth.
• Policy support: Enhanced data will aid government ministries in crafting climate-resilient strategies and infrastructure planning.

BFS addresses all these challenges head-on. Its hyper-local forecasts empower farmers to make data-driven decisions—when to sow, irrigate, or harvest. For disaster management, BFS’s precision means earlier warnings for cyclones or heavy rainfall, giving authorities critical hours to evacuate communities or reinforce infrastructure.

Take aviation, for instance. Pilots navigating India’s turbulent monsoon skies need accurate, real-time weather data to ensure safety. BFS delivers that, potentially reducing flight delays and cancellations. Urban planners, too, can use BFS to design smarter cities, anticipating flood-prone areas. Even everyday citizens benefit—imagine getting a nowcast on your phone warning of heavy rain in your neighborhood, not just your city. This level of granularity could transform how India prepares for and responds to weather events.

A Leap Towards Self-Reliance and Global Leadership

BFS is not just a technological achievement; it is a symbol of India’s stride towards self-reliance in critical scientific domains. By developing an indigenous system that outperforms many global models in resolution and speed, India asserts its position among the top weather forecasting nations. This aligns with broader national goals of technological sovereignty and economic resilience.

Moreover, BFS’s ability to provide real-time, hyper-local forecasts makes it a unique global offering. No other country operates a global numerical weather prediction system at such a high resolution in real time, giving India a competitive edge in climate science and disaster preparedness.

Challenges and the Road Ahead

While BFS is a monumental step forward, challenges remain. Weather forecasting, especially in the tropics, is inherently complex due to chaotic atmospheric behavior. Continuous refinement of models, expansion of radar networks, and integration with satellite data will be essential to maintain and improve forecast accuracy.

Furthermore, translating forecasts into actionable information for farmers, disaster management authorities, and the public requires robust communication channels and capacity building at the grassroots level. Ensuring that BFS’s benefits reach the most vulnerable populations will be key to maximizing its impact.

The TUI Perspective: BFS as a Catalyst for Climate Resilience

We at TheUnitedIndian see it as more than a weather model—it’s a blueprint for climate resilience. India faces intensifying climate challenges: erratic monsoons, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather. BFS’s ability to predict these events with unprecedented accuracy could save billions in economic losses. For example, the 2018 Kerala floods caused over $4 billion in damages. With BFS, authorities could have had sharper forecasts, potentially mitigating such losses.
 

Beyond economics, BFS has a human impact. In rural India, where millions lack access to real-time information, hyper-local forecasts could be a game-changer. Imagine village cooperatives using BFS data to plan sowing schedules or local governments issuing flood alerts via SMS. However, scaling this impact will require investment in last-mile delivery—ensuring farmers and communities can access and understand these forecasts. Partnerships with tech platforms or mobile apps could bridge this gap, making BFS a household name.
 

On a global scale, BFS could spark a new era of meteorological collaboration. Tropical nations often rely on Western models that don’t fully capture their weather complexities. India could lead a consortium, sharing BFS’s framework and data to improve forecasting across the tropics. This would not only enhance India’s soft power but also align with its commitment to climate leadership, as seen in initiatives like the International Solar Alliance.

Key Takeaways: Looking Ahead: A Weather-Smart India

The Bharat Forecast System heralds a new era in India’s weather forecasting capabilities, combining cutting-edge technology, indigenous expertise, and strategic vision. Its high-resolution, fast, and accurate forecasts promise to revolutionize how India prepares for and responds to weather extremes.

In a world increasingly shaped by climate uncertainty, BFS offers a beacon of hope — a tool that can save lives, protect livelihoods, and support sustainable development. As India continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, the BFS will be an indispensable asset in building a more resilient and prosperous nation.

India’s journey from relying on coarser, slower weather models to deploying the world’s most precise forecasting system is a story of innovation, determination, and foresight. The Bharat Forecast System is not just a scientific marvel; it is a powerful example of how technology can empower societies to face the future with confidence.

Frequently Asked Question (FAQs)

Q1: What is the Bharat Forecast System (BFS)?

A1: BFS is India’s indigenous high-resolution weather prediction model with a 6 km grid, offering highly accurate and localized weather forecasts.

Q2: How is BFS different from previous weather models?

A2: BFS has double the resolution of earlier models (6 km vs. 12 km grids) and runs faster on the Arka supercomputer, enabling more precise and timely forecasts.

Q3: What role does the Arka supercomputer play in BFS?

A3: Arka processes massive meteorological data at 11.77 petaflops, reducing forecast computation time from 10 hours to about 4 hours, improving speed and accuracy.

Q4: How does BFS help in disaster management?

A4: BFS provides early and localized warnings for extreme weather events like cyclones, floods, and heatwaves, allowing timely preventive action.

Q5: Can BFS forecasts help farmers?

A5: Yes, BFS’s localized and accurate weather data helps farmers plan sowing, irrigation, and harvesting, reducing crop losses and improving yields.